Value betting - how to bet to outsmart the bookmaker?
During your adventure with bookmakers, you have probably often encountered a situation in which the bookmaker, at the meeting you are interested in, put a rate that was definitely higher than it should be. In this case, we are dealing with the so-called with valuebet .
Skillful use of such a bookmaker's mistake is a great opportunity for us to make a profit. However, it is worth knowing how to calculate our chances of a possible win. If you want to have such knowledge, we invite you to read our text.
Value Bet - examples
The concept of value betting is not the simplest one. To illustrate it accurately, we need to use an example. For this, we will consider the odds that the STS bookmaker put up for the meeting between Leeds and Burnley:
Leeds 1.75 odds
x 4.00 odds
Burnley 4.40 odds
In determining whether a given bet will be a value bet, a specific mathematical formula will help us:
p * k = value
p - is the estimated probability of winning the bet. They are expressed as a percentage and divided by 100.
k - the rate that the bookmaker decided to put on the event of interest to us.
Therefore, we will deal with a value bet when the result of our actions is greater than 1.
Going back to the example above, let's assume Leeds players have about a 70% chance of winning. So we need to check if in this case it gives us a value bet:
p = 70%: 100 = 0.70
k = 1.75
p * k = 0.70 * 1.75 = 1.22> 1
So we can see perfectly well that when the chances of Marcelo Bielsa's players are estimated at 70% and the odds for their victory are 1.75, this bet will be a vaule bet, because its value after applying a special formula is greater than 1.
We should remember, however, that skilful selection of the probability of a positive outcome of a given event is our responsibility and, contrary to appearances, this process is very complicated. Sometimes it is also difficult to find a value bet in a bookmaker's offer. You can read about how to do this in the paragraph below.
How do I find a value bet?
The first thing we should do when looking for a value bet is to choose a specific discipline to focus on. It would be difficult to search through all football, volleyball or basketball matches, because during the weekend their number usually fluctuates around several thousand.
So when we decide to choose football as our crown discipline, our search should mainly focus on these less popular competitions. It is easier for a bookmaker to make a mistake than for the Premier League or Bundesliga when placing the odds, for example, at the Bolivian or Albanian league matches.
We also mentioned a few paragraphs above that when looking for a value bet, careful betting analysis is very important. So what should be included in such an analysis? Here are some of the most important aspects:
- history of direct duels
- current form
- disposition at home, as well as in away matches
- expected lineups (we also take into account injured players and players pausing for cards)
- position in the table
Often, from the moment the match is included in their offer until the actual start of the match, bookmakers decide to manipulate the odds. So you have to carefully observe the behavior of individual companies and be definitely allergic to those that try to do this to the disadvantage of players.
Value betting - is it worth it?
As with any method used in betting , there are advantages and disadvantages to playing value bets. However, we strongly encourage you to use one of these methods, because meaningless betting without a previously chosen tactic will always work to our disadvantage, and the only beneficiary of this will be the bookmaker.
Value betting is just one of the many methods available. If you would like to read about more on the pages of our website, please leave a relevant rating below.
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